Posts Tagged ‘unemployment’

Intero Insider: Good News for Employed AND Unemployed

By Gino Blefari | August 17th, 2010 0 Comments

In times of economic hardship, most news tends to focus on the bad stuff: unemployment, consumer spending, consumer confidence, slow economic growth. This may be why a recent economic story in The New York Times caught my eye: “For Those With Jobs, a Recession With Benefits.”

The headline says it all – the silver lining. It seems obvious, but for those lucky enough to still be employed, these are great times to be a consumer.

Just look at interest rates for mortgages. If you’re employed and looking to buy a house, you’re part of a group of borrowers who will lock in rates so low even buyers from a few months ago would cry. 4.375% percent (APR 4.579%) on a 30-year fixed!! That is something to brag about. Even an $8,000 home buyer tax credit cannot beat the savings achieved on these borrowing costs.

Further tipping the scales in favor of today’s employed are wages. According to the NYT article, “The typical jobless person has been out of work six months. The typical worker has received a raise.” Since the start of the recession in December 2007, real average hourly pay has risen nearly 5 percent.

This is obviously bad news for those who have been out of work for some time. But again, the bright side: Rising wages are good news for housing. And while the market may not see a huge pop from this right away, higher wages at least provide confidence for those buyers who are in the market today, and those sellers who are hoping for a match.

Remember: Every home sale needs just one qualified buyer. Your pool of buyers starts to increase with every job that is secured.

A lifeboat for unemployed homeowners

But even amid bad times for the jobless, there was some good news out of Washington last week. The Obama Administration is prepping $3 billion in financial assistance to aid homeowners in the states most affected by unemployment.

The assistance program will send $2 billion in aid to state Housing Finance Agencies for programs for borrowers who are struggling to make payments due to job loss. Another $1 billion in aid will come from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to provide up to 24 months of assistance to homeowners who are at risk of foreclosure.

So you see, it’s not all bad right now. Let’s hope it works!

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Intero Insider: What We Need Are Jobs

By Gino Blefari | July 14th, 2010 0 Comments

We are now halfway through the year – a good time to reflect and to look ahead at what the rest of the year may bring.

For me, I’ve been focusing on market fundamentals and how they may guide real estate buyers over the summer and fall.

While many in our industry this past week focused on Congress’ decision to pass an extension for the Home Buyer Tax Credit – giving buyers under contract another 90 days to close and still qualify for the credit – I feel we should’ve been talking more about jobs.

Jobs should be the focus when looking at ways to fuel long-term housing demand. Jobs create incomes, which are essential to support mortgages on home sales. Without a positive job outlook, the other strong demand fundamentals already in place – rock-bottom interest rates, softened prices – can’t sustain the market alone.

Unfortunately, the news on that front has not been that great:

  • Private payroll gains weren’t as high as expected in June – meaning more small businesses cut jobs or refrained from hiring.
  • Unemployment rates eased in some cities, but increased in others. At the national level, unemployment inched up .2 percentage points to 9.3 percent from last year’s level.

I know it’s not easy to fill the employment gap as quickly as we’d like to see. But until we get positive news on jobs, the reality is that we’re looking at a long haul for housing. Sure, a new tax credit would help. And the historic low interest rates are definitely working in our favor. But those jobs really are key.

Jobs are what we need for a sustainable, healthy housing demand. Match this with record low interest rates – 4.67 percent last week on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages – and then we might have ourselves a good housing cocktail.

It’s not going to happen overnight. As with everything, we need to practice patience in this recovery and understand which market forces will really make a difference.

It may sound strange to anyone who is without a job or on shaky employment ground, but it really is a great time to be a home buyer – IF your situation is right. If you’re lucky enough to have job security and you also have the means, you are in the middle of some of the cheapest borrowing in history. And you have a lot of inventory to choose from in most markets.

So as we make our way through the second half of the year, let’s focus on the fundamentals that will not only give housing a quick lift, but more importantly sustain upward movement.

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