Posts Tagged ‘Realtors’

Intero Insider – 2011: Slow growth will end the decline

By Gino Blefari | November 17th, 2010 0 Comments

We are about to start a new year that will prove positive upward motion for both our state and local San Francisco Bay Area economy. We’re going to see some job growth, which will help to fuel initial growth in the housing recovery. But it’s going to be a slow start in 2011 – a year of transition is a good way to describe it – and we may not always feel like we’re making progress because of the slow speed.

Despite how slow or fast we’re moving, we are saying goodbye to the bottom and setting our sites on upward movement in 2011.

For housing, I expect to see a rise in sales volume and median prices in California in 2011 from our bottom year of 2010. I think a lot of buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines – either for a more secure employment situation or a signal of the market bottom – will finally move and buy.

We’ll continue to see high levels of foreclosures, but the market will continue to work through them.

In the Bay Area, there are a lot of developments that make me feel optimistic about 2011. Facebook game developer Zynga recently signed the largest lease for San Francisco office space in five years. Facebook itself recently announced a joint $250 million fund for social application developments. Stocks have been surging at Oracle, eBay, Google, Intel and other Silicon Valley tech powerhouses. And while sales volume has lagged, home prices in the Bay Area rose for 13 straight months through September, according to MDA Dataquick numbers.

These are all very positive signs that the Bay Area economy is already looking up, though we need to be mindful that miracles are not going to happen in 2011.

Here is what I am projecting:

Home buyers: Expect the loan process to be long and strict. You will need cash, a solid credit history, appropriate salary and job security. You won’t have the lowest of the low interest rates forever so you will come off the fence in droves in the spring of 2011. This rush may even surprise you as you find yourself competing for offers.

Home sellers: The folks at the California Association of Realtors have discussed the tale of two housing markets in our state: the high end versus the low end. How you come out in 2011 as a home seller really depends on which market segment you are in.

Sales of properties valued at less than $500,000 have largely been distressed properties and banks are expected to release more inventory next year. This means sellers of properties in this price range will continue to have a lot of competing inventory.

Meanwhile, sales at the high end – above $500,000 – have seen and will continue to see constraints from tightened lending.

The prognosis? It won’t be the best year to be a home seller in 2011, but be patient as there are buyers on the sidelines waiting to jump in.

Homeowners: Underwater owners are a wildcard in the forecast next year. I don’t see the trend of walking away from a mortgage ending completely, but hopefully some of the positive economic news will create a much needed sense of security for these folks.

The transition we need

We have a lot going for us in 2011. Our state’s sheer size of nearly 37 million residents, expansion of the exporting and technology sectors, and an expected rise in personal incomes are all factors we have working for us. We are still the eighth largest economy in the world with a gross domestic product of some $1.8 trillion.

It takes a lot to keep us down, and it will take a lot to pull us back to normal. 2011 won’t be remembered as a breakout year of growth, but it will be the year we turned the economy back around – the year we needed to transition from decline to moving up.

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Intero Insider: Why Plunging Home Sales Won’t Kill Real Estate

By Gino Blefari | August 31st, 2010 0 Comments

The latest housing news is pretty grim: existing home sales fell 27.2 percent in July from the previous month to 3.3 million, the lowest in more than a decade. We’re definitely seeing the expected drop-off coming off the end of the home buyer tax credit.

Most of us saw this coming. The very point of the home buyer tax credit was to pump life into the market and entice buyers to move off the fence. Take it away and you’re merely peeling back the covers from the real situation, showing that many potential buyers are tepid, scared of losing their jobs, optimistic that prices will come down just a little more, or simply not able to get a loan.

Amid this news, the New York Times featured a story saying that housing is no longer considered a means to build wealth.

But that’s where I need to stop and think.

There’s no getting around the fact that the market is slow and expected to be slow through the end of the year. True.

And there’s no question that flipping houses is not the part-time moneymaking hobby it once was during boom years. Very true.

But to swear off real estate as a means to build wealth is a bit dramatic. It’s true that in most cases, a buyer cannot look at a house solely as a monetary investment. It’s simply not that – it’s more. It’s a roof over your head. It’s the place where your children grow from toddlers to young adults. It’s where you spend your days and nights living your life.

A home is shelter, but it’s also ownership. Last I checked, you can’t really put a price on the kind of pride that comes with homeownership. Ask anyone whether it’s a dream of theirs to own a home and you’ll likely hear a resounding “yes.”

Again, it’s the intangibles of real estate that will keep this market alive.

A home is not a casino slot machine. It’s not a mutual fund. But it is a relatively safe way to spend your monthly housing budget. In the long-term, homes will still return value to their owners – and while it may not be in the form of doubling your returns, it is a true asset, a thing that you own free and clear after the mortgage is paid.

At the end of the loan, it’s still yours, not the landlord’s or the bank’s. Yours.

So even amid a declining market while analysts and pundits decry real estate a non-wealth builder, a dead end, myself and 60 million+ other homeowners disagree. We decided to put our money into our homes and are proud of it. I don’t think that sentiment is going to change overnight.

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Intero Insider: Closing The Door on 2009

By Gino Blefari | December 29th, 2009 0 Comments

The Holiday Season is approaching its end. Hopefully, you’ve been able to relax a bit and spend time with family, friends and the people whom you love most. The end of this season signals the rapidly-approaching end to yet another year. A year that most of us are more than ready to put behind us. We’re all looking forward to the promises of the new year. A fresh start. New possibilities. To 2010.

But let’s take a moment to reflect on the year that was 2009, and how it shaped us and our industry.

2009 was a year of change. A change in the way people shop for homes. A change in the way real estate professionals do business. A change in the way we look at things.

Certainly, the economy and its woes played a major role. While there are glimmers of light and signs of improvement on the horizon, rising unemployment (that will likely worsen a bit more before it gets better) and more stringent lending standards continued their stranglehold on the real estate industry.

Mortgage rates found themselves at all-time lows in 2009, but with underwriting restrictions and tightening standards, including tougher rules from places FHA, typically thought more “understanding”, very few people were able to qualify. With the Federal Government’s loan modification program, short sales and a flood of foreclosures with which to deal, banks are not likely to loosen these standards anytime soon.

Of course, the news wasn’t all bad.

With those foreclosures and short sales came some incredible opportunities for those looking to buy a home. For those with open minds and who were willing to exercise a little bit of patience, deals, the likes of which hadn’t been seen in decades, were ripe for the picking.

For those who were really lucky, those deals could be combined with what was (and will likely continue to be) one of the biggest stories in real estate: the Homebuyer Tax Credit. Recently expanded to include a far broader pool of buyers, the HBTC, in 2009, gave first-time homebuyers a credit of up to $8000 when they purchased a new home. For many, this credit was just the boost necessary to get them toward their share of the American Dream.

While 2009 saw nowhere near the panic and angst that riddled Wall Street and the entire real estate industry in 2008, it was a year of sobering news. A year of goodbyes to the old way of doing business. It was a year for real estate professionals to reevaluate their priorities. To rethink how they did things. It was a year of separating the wheat from the chaff, as many Realtors left the profession altogether. Those who dug in their heels, who opened their minds to new practices, who opted to help, rather than hinder, will rise to the top. They will reap the fruits of their labor.

As you’re making your resolutions for the New Year, think about where we’ve been. About how far we’ve come. Think about how you’ll do things differently. Think about the possibilities before you.

Yes, 2009 was a hard year.  But remember our theme for 2009 – “Adversity is your asset. Things turn out BEST for those who make the BEST of how things turn out.”…AND WE DID! So rather than looking back at 2009 as just a “tough year” let’s make it a year in which we have learned. A year that strengthened our resolve, and our collective character. 2010 is OUR time, now let’s go out and TAKE IT!

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