By One week, it’s up. The next week? Down. No matter what the experts say, the fact remains that no one really seems to be able to put their finger on how fast or slow the recovery of the real estate market will be.
There are some who say that we haven’t seen the worst of it yet (and we sincerely hope that’s not true).
Others have a shinier view, saying that the turnaround has been made and that we’re well on the way back.
I think it’s more prudent to take things more cautiously. To brace myself for setbacks, but to take heart in the great strides the real estate industry has made in the past year. Make no mistake, however, the recovery of this sector isn’t going to be instantaneous, no matter how badly we’d like it to be. The boom market by which we were spoiled lasted the better part of a decade, and it left a great deal of wreckage in its path.
That said, last week, Standard & Poor’s released its quarterly home price numbers. And what they show is encouraging. They show that, while it’s gradual and slow, recovery is, most certainly, taking place. For the seventh consecutive month, there was an improvement in pricing. Granted, this quarter’s increase was just three tenths of a percent, but it’s an increase all the same.
Substantial gains were seen in San Francisco, which saw a five percent gain, in San Diego and Dallas, each of which showed gains of three percent, and gains that were far above average in Washington, DC, Boston and Denver. Even cities that have been hit (and hit very hard) by the sagging real estate market, such as Las Vegas and Phoenix, saw increases, and that’s not something that’s happened for them in a very long time.
Even Warren Buffet, whom we all can agree knows a thing or two about money, seems to feel that we’ll have recovered from this slump by 2011. He said recently that while prices will remain below “bubble” levels, a more normalized market will be return by sometime next year.
We are, by no means, over every hurdle. We are not sprinting toward the finish line. But we are making progress. Slow and steady, to be sure, but progress. I take heart in that. I think that a measured recovery is the key to winning the race and standing on the podium, once and for all.
