Posts Tagged ‘interst rates’

Intero Insider: It’s a Great Time To Buy! Or Is It?

By Gino Blefari | March 17th, 2010 0 Comments

Think back to any point in recent memory — or not all that recent, it really doesn’t matter — to conversations you’ve had with real estate agents, or ads you’ve heard about the real estate market. I can’t be certain, but I’m betting that the lion’s share of those contained some reference to that moment in time being “a great time to buy”.

And, in reality, real estate always has been a great long-term investment, hasn’t it? Ask somebody who bought real estate thirty, forty, or fifty years how they look at their investment today. I guarantee you they’ll say they wished they had bought more.

But let’s look a this a little differently for a moment – and look at the issue of “it’s a great time to buy” in a new way.

Is it a great time to buy … for you?

That’s the real question, isn’t it? Regardless of market conditions, regardless of interest rates or tax credits or anything like that, the best time to buy a home is when it’s best for you.

People tend not to look for new homes “just because”. There has to be a reason. There has to be some sort of need. If there are bonuses like rock bottom mortgage rates, or economic factors that have driven home prices to levels lower than moss, so much the better. But if you don’t have a reason to buy a home, do those factors make it a great time to buy? Probably not.

Often, we hear people say, in retrospect, “Man! I should’ve bought that house back then.” But really, would you have? If there was no reason for you to move, no real reason to buy “back then”, chances are that the idea of a home purchase wouldn’t even have been on your radar screen. Hindsight is 20/20, but none of us is a fortune teller; no one knows, in advance, what the trends in home pricing will be.

Maybe now is the best time for you to buy. If your family has expanded, if your work circumstances have changed, or if you simply want to, then yes. It’s a great time to buy.

When you decide that it’s the best time for you, make sure you arm yourself with knowledge. Make sure that you have an agent who knows your market. Make sure you have someone who’s an advocate for your needs, someone who’s looking out for your best interests. Each and every Intero agent is abreast of the latest market trends and is an expert in the communities that they serve.

So, ask yourself, “Is it a great time to buy?” Only you can answer that question definitively, but once you say “Yes!”, the team at Intero will be here to make it as great an experience as possible.

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Intero Insider: Is California Rebounding? Is It Really?

By Gino Blefari | January 27th, 2010 0 Comments

Last month, home sales in California were up almost 17% over November, and more than 10% over December 2008. This would indicate that progress is being made. Indeed, lots of people are predicting (as many do at the beginning of each year) that there will be a marked turnaround in market value and that things will do nothing but get rosier.

But there’s a problem that not a lot of people are talking about.

Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Strategic Mortgage Default.

No? Let’s talk about it.

Strategic Mortgage Default occurs when a homeowner, finding his home worth less than he owes on his mortgage, intentionally allows it to go into foreclosure. Let me repeat that: intentionally. Right or wrong, lots of people have done it. And many, many more are considering it. The thinking, typically, is that throwing good money after bad will just lead to … nothing. Many people believe that their homes will never again be worth what they paid for them. As such, they think, “Huh. No more property taxes, maintenance, insurance? That sounds good.”

In 2010, based on when many parts of California saw their real estate markets “top out”, many homeowners will have adjustments in their mortgages kick in. One saving grace here might be that interest rates are quite low, so payments mightn’t change all that much. But these adjustments, coupled with new taxes just passed in the state and the realization that their homes aren’t worth close to what they paid might be enough to have many people throwing in the proverbial towel.

While all of this might sound bleak, it would be naive to issue feel-good platitudes and not face the reality of the situation head-on. Strategic Mortgage Default will do its part to radically raise the number of bank-owned for sale in California. And there are lots already.

If you’re planning on selling your house this year, these homes — part of what we call “shadow inventory” — could play a big role in where you can, realistically, set your price. If you’re planning on buying, you’ll want to know how to position yourself to get the best price possible on your purchase.

Strategic Mortgage Default is going to be something you’ll hear more and more about in 2010. Like “short sale”, “REO”, and “foreclosure”, it’ll become part of the daily vernacular.

Pretending that the world is draped in sunshine and rainbows won’t solve anything. It might make people feel better for a while, but it won’t solve anything. Facing reality is the only thing that gets the job done. Your Intero Real Estate professional is ready to deal with reality. Let us know how we can help.

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With Rates at Historic Lows, What’s Next?

By Russ Boyd | January 19th, 2010 0 Comments

You already know that what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates has a huge impact on the housing market.   I’m Russ Boyd and what you might not know is that the Fed influences housing prices in another significant way—through its purchasing of mortgage-backed securities (MBS)—and now the question is that when the Fed stops buying those securities in the near future, how will it affect the housing market?
Some background will help explain what is going on. Let’s start with a definition. An MBS is a group of mortgage loans that are pooled together and sold as a bond.

Part of a Pool

It is easy to understand how MBS come about and how they work. When you go to a bank or mortgage broker to borrow money to purchase a home, the home is collateral, and your mortgage—the promise you’ll pay principal and interest each month—is the anticipated cash flow the lender receives from you.
That bank or broker then sells your loan to an entity that aggregates your loan with a bunch of other loans into a big “pool” of various types of loans with various maturity dates (fixed, adjustable rate, one-year, 30-year, good credit, bad credit, etc.) The aggregator then issues these pooled mortgages as bonds, the MBS, which promise investors an attractive stream of interest payments.
Who are these aggregators?
They are government sponsored entities (GSEs). One large group is the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB), a private corporation made up of 8,100 member banks. All of the member banks must own stock in FHLB in order to participate in its loan program.  Other GSEs, which have become household names are Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae
To recap,  an MBS is a pool of home loans sold as a bond. And we know who issues them: government sponsored enterprises such as Freddie and Fannie, etc. So, how does this help us understand where real estate prices are going?

Easier to Get a Home Loan

Well, most banks have neither enough money, nor any desire, to hold a large number of home loans for an extended period of time. Absent a place for the banks to sell them, as many of us found out over the last year, it then becomes difficult for us to get a new loan. Thus, the MBS market is currently providing us all with an important means of loan supply, albeit indirectly via our bankers and mortgage brokers. The easier it is for banks to sell our loans to MBS aggregators, the easier it is for us to get a home loan. The more difficult it is, the harder (and more costly) it is for us to get a mortgage.
When the entire financial system found itself on shaky ground the housing market was affected big time. Anticipating a big increase in homeowners defaulting on their mortgages, investors no longer wanted to own their existing MBS, let alone buy newly issued MBS.
With no buyers for those securities, the GSEs couldn’t sell them or issue more. As a result, the supply of mortgage loans all but came to a screaming halt.
To the rescue came the Fed. Last November, as part of its efforts to get the economy moving again, the Fed announced it would buy $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities. In March of this year it raised its target to $1.25 trillion, and it has followed through on its pledge.  These purchases have undoubtedly provided much needed liquidity to the MBS market and helped keep the long-term mortgage rates at historic lows.

Behind the Higher Rates

O.K., let’s get back to the original question: What’s next? Well, just as it has been with interest rates, the Fed has been transparent about its intentions toward MBS. It has said it will stop buying MBS once it fulfills its commitment of buying those $1.25 trillion worth of bonds. It will complete that purchase sometime during the first quarter of next year.
That means that, sometime within the next five months, the Fed will be withdrawing a prop under the housing market.
What remains to be seen is how other investors react as the Fed slows—and then eliminates—its purchase program.
My expectation: As the Fed pulls out, private investors will demand a higher interest rate for such securities—to compensate for their concern people will continue to default on their mortgages—and thus long-term mortgage rates will rise. The real question is how fast and how high.

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