Posts Tagged ‘Interest Rates’

Intero Insider: Why Low Interest Rates Are Still Vital to the Housing Economy

By Gino Blefari | January 17th, 2012 0 Comments

Interest rates. It’s a constant topic of conversation in real estate, and this year so far is no different than the last few: We’re kicking it off with some of the lowest interest rates on long-term mortgages that the market has ever seen. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached an all-time low of 3.89% this month, according to a survey tracked by Freddie Mac.

Two messages are important in this news for home buyers and sellers. They are:

1. Low interest rates are significant for home buyers, equating to big savings when locked in at the right time. This is a point that can actually motivate a lot of buyers to get off the fence.

For instance, let’s look at a .5% increase in a mortgage rate on a 30-year mortgage for $425,000. Say our buyers could get a 4.75% interest rate when they first start their real estate search. If they indeed buy a home and lock in a mortgage at this rate, they’ll end up paying $373,120.42 in total interest over the life of the loan.

But say these buyers get lost in their decision-making process and end up taking eight months to make a decision on a home. By the time they lock in their rate, they end up with a 5.25% interest rate on a 30-year mortgage for the same $425,000 loan. Now, they’ll end up paying $419,871.66 in interest over the life of the loan. That’s a $46,751.24 increase in the final interest bill – substantial to the average family buying a home.

Taking advantage of the lowest rates possible is a key message that will help to motivate a lot of buyers in 2012.

2. While no one can predict when interest rates will increase or by how much, we know they inevitably will increase, but can also feel comfortable that they’re not going to jump suddenly. Most analysts and industry observers expect rates to remain low as long as the economy is still in a slow recovery. That’s good news for buyers and sellers alike (more affordable borrowing means more buyers in the market, in most cases).

Low interest rates alone cannot save a housing slump, or single-handedly create a boom (remember that our last boom was also fueled by very loose loan underwriting standards that created a lot demand from market segments that would not be eligible for loans under today’s standards). But they’re still extremely important to the recovery story. They still have a vital role. Let’s not undermine that, or let that point get lost in the shuffle.

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Intero Insider: Good News for Employed AND Unemployed

By Gino Blefari | August 17th, 2010 0 Comments

In times of economic hardship, most news tends to focus on the bad stuff: unemployment, consumer spending, consumer confidence, slow economic growth. This may be why a recent economic story in The New York Times caught my eye: “For Those With Jobs, a Recession With Benefits.”

The headline says it all – the silver lining. It seems obvious, but for those lucky enough to still be employed, these are great times to be a consumer.

Just look at interest rates for mortgages. If you’re employed and looking to buy a house, you’re part of a group of borrowers who will lock in rates so low even buyers from a few months ago would cry. 4.375% percent (APR 4.579%) on a 30-year fixed!! That is something to brag about. Even an $8,000 home buyer tax credit cannot beat the savings achieved on these borrowing costs.

Further tipping the scales in favor of today’s employed are wages. According to the NYT article, “The typical jobless person has been out of work six months. The typical worker has received a raise.” Since the start of the recession in December 2007, real average hourly pay has risen nearly 5 percent.

This is obviously bad news for those who have been out of work for some time. But again, the bright side: Rising wages are good news for housing. And while the market may not see a huge pop from this right away, higher wages at least provide confidence for those buyers who are in the market today, and those sellers who are hoping for a match.

Remember: Every home sale needs just one qualified buyer. Your pool of buyers starts to increase with every job that is secured.

A lifeboat for unemployed homeowners

But even amid bad times for the jobless, there was some good news out of Washington last week. The Obama Administration is prepping $3 billion in financial assistance to aid homeowners in the states most affected by unemployment.

The assistance program will send $2 billion in aid to state Housing Finance Agencies for programs for borrowers who are struggling to make payments due to job loss. Another $1 billion in aid will come from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to provide up to 24 months of assistance to homeowners who are at risk of foreclosure.

So you see, it’s not all bad right now. Let’s hope it works!

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Intero Insider: What We Need Are Jobs

By Gino Blefari | July 14th, 2010 0 Comments

We are now halfway through the year – a good time to reflect and to look ahead at what the rest of the year may bring.

For me, I’ve been focusing on market fundamentals and how they may guide real estate buyers over the summer and fall.

While many in our industry this past week focused on Congress’ decision to pass an extension for the Home Buyer Tax Credit – giving buyers under contract another 90 days to close and still qualify for the credit – I feel we should’ve been talking more about jobs.

Jobs should be the focus when looking at ways to fuel long-term housing demand. Jobs create incomes, which are essential to support mortgages on home sales. Without a positive job outlook, the other strong demand fundamentals already in place – rock-bottom interest rates, softened prices – can’t sustain the market alone.

Unfortunately, the news on that front has not been that great:

  • Private payroll gains weren’t as high as expected in June – meaning more small businesses cut jobs or refrained from hiring.
  • Unemployment rates eased in some cities, but increased in others. At the national level, unemployment inched up .2 percentage points to 9.3 percent from last year’s level.

I know it’s not easy to fill the employment gap as quickly as we’d like to see. But until we get positive news on jobs, the reality is that we’re looking at a long haul for housing. Sure, a new tax credit would help. And the historic low interest rates are definitely working in our favor. But those jobs really are key.

Jobs are what we need for a sustainable, healthy housing demand. Match this with record low interest rates – 4.67 percent last week on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages – and then we might have ourselves a good housing cocktail.

It’s not going to happen overnight. As with everything, we need to practice patience in this recovery and understand which market forces will really make a difference.

It may sound strange to anyone who is without a job or on shaky employment ground, but it really is a great time to be a home buyer – IF your situation is right. If you’re lucky enough to have job security and you also have the means, you are in the middle of some of the cheapest borrowing in history. And you have a lot of inventory to choose from in most markets.

So as we make our way through the second half of the year, let’s focus on the fundamentals that will not only give housing a quick lift, but more importantly sustain upward movement.

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Mortgage that Matters: THE GREEK-AMERICAN AND OUR MORTGAGE MARKETS

By Rick Soukoulis | June 3rd, 2010 0 Comments

As a Greek-American, I have being watching the financial crisis and the upheaval it is creating in Greece with what I think is a different perspective than many other Americans have.  I want to share a perspective on what another Greek-American is dealing with and how his actions affect our mortgage market.

In the 1960’s a Greek economist named Andreas Papandreou was teaching economics at UC Berkeley. His American-born wife wanted to spend some time in her native country, and Andreas had the chance to be a visiting professor at Cal for several years.

The family lived in the Berkeley Hills, and their son, Georgie, played baseball with his neighbors, joined the Cub Scouts, and went to Cragmont Elementary School, one of Berkeley’s public schools.

He was a typical ten year old, carefree, living the life of an American boy, much like Tom Sawyer and every other kid.

Where is he today?

Today, he goes by George rather than Georgie, and today he has the worst job in the world: He’s the Prime Minister of Greece.  He’s often referred to in the press as The Beleaguered George Papandreou.

What’s going on over there, and why is it making the front pages with scary headlines?

Essentially, Greece ran huge deficits and is close to national bankruptcy. Like all governments, it finances itself partly by selling bonds, but their financial house is in such disorder that they might not be able to sell new bonds or refinance old ones.

Like individuals that accumulate too much debt, the Greek government is cutting expenses, but government workers are unhappy seeing their wages cut.  A general strike shut down Greek airports, tourist sites and public services and some 50,000 demonstrators marched against the planned public spending cuts and tax rises.  You’ve seen the violence on TV.

Because Greece is part of the Europeans Union (EU),  people are deeply concerned that their problems will spread to the rest of Europe. The global markets are very scared, and when this happens, nervous investors turn to the strongest currencies and deepest markets in what is referred to as a Flight to Quality.

This has meant global investors moving their money to the dollar, and in buying up U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, bond prices have risen and rates have dropped.

What happens to Treasury bond rates almost immediately happens to mortgage rates, and you’ve already noticed how mortgage rates have dropped pretty significantly of late.

I don’t know if Greece will be kicked out of the EU or if they’ll solve their fiscal woes.

I do know that as long as there’s financial turmoil around the world, in Greece or elsewhere, people will turn to the U.S.

This should big a great summer selling season!

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Intero Insider: Out of the Ashes Rises the Phoenix…Or At Least A Parakeet

By Gino Blefari | May 25th, 2010 0 Comments

I love finding the silver lining in things.

No matter how desperate a situation might look, there is almost always something positive, glimmering no matter how faintly, beneath the surface.

I have long postulated that the Federal Government’s stoppage of investment in mortgage-backed securities could result in rising interest rates. And I still believe that to be the case.

We seem, however, to have found a silvery lining in the specter of that cloud.

As you are likely aware, our friends in Europe are going through a bit of a financial crisis of their own. Greece is deeply in debt and has no earthly idea how to get out. The rest of the European Union doesn’t want to help them out, but Greece’s troubles are having a crippling effect on the, until now, untouchable Euro, whose value is dependent on the economies of all of the countries that use it.

The result? International investors, now wary of stockpiling their cash in European markets, have sent the U.S. an unexpected windfall in the form of mortgage rates that are now at near 50-year lows.

How low, do you ask?

Freddie Mac, on Friday, the 21st, said that rates averaged just 4.84% last week. Far from shabby, that’s the lowest since December 2009. In fact, I’ve heard reports of mortgage officers locking in loans with rates as low as 4.25% — fixed — which is as low a rate of which I’ve ever heard.

Did you miss out on the Homebuyer Tax Credit? As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, it’s OK if you did. In the long run, that $8000 won’t take most people all that far. But a mortgage interest rate of below 5%? Now that is something that’ll save you some big money. A one-percentage-point decline in mortgage rates can save you hundreds of dollars each month. Over a 30-year period, that could translate into a lot of money. Real savings.

Also, lowered interest rates will increase buyers’ spending power. For each percentage point mortgage rates decline, buyers can spend about 10% more on a home. The extra bedroom or bump-out for which they’d been hoping might now be within their reach.

Take heed, though. It’s tougher now to qualify for a mortgage than it has ever been. Underwriting standards are tough. Not everyone is going to qualify, I’m afraid.

How long will things stay this way?

That’s a great question, and unfortunately one which has no answer. But I can tell you this: it’s unlikely that these rates will last for very long. If you have questions, contact your mortgage lender, your financial advisor, or your Intero real estate professional. They can point you in the right direction. If you’re looking to buy a home (or to refinance your current mortgage), it would seem that there is no time like the present.

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Intero Insider: Is California Rebounding? Is It Really?

By Gino Blefari | January 27th, 2010 0 Comments

Last month, home sales in California were up almost 17% over November, and more than 10% over December 2008. This would indicate that progress is being made. Indeed, lots of people are predicting (as many do at the beginning of each year) that there will be a marked turnaround in market value and that things will do nothing but get rosier.

But there’s a problem that not a lot of people are talking about.

Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Strategic Mortgage Default.

No? Let’s talk about it.

Strategic Mortgage Default occurs when a homeowner, finding his home worth less than he owes on his mortgage, intentionally allows it to go into foreclosure. Let me repeat that: intentionally. Right or wrong, lots of people have done it. And many, many more are considering it. The thinking, typically, is that throwing good money after bad will just lead to … nothing. Many people believe that their homes will never again be worth what they paid for them. As such, they think, “Huh. No more property taxes, maintenance, insurance? That sounds good.”

In 2010, based on when many parts of California saw their real estate markets “top out”, many homeowners will have adjustments in their mortgages kick in. One saving grace here might be that interest rates are quite low, so payments mightn’t change all that much. But these adjustments, coupled with new taxes just passed in the state and the realization that their homes aren’t worth close to what they paid might be enough to have many people throwing in the proverbial towel.

While all of this might sound bleak, it would be naive to issue feel-good platitudes and not face the reality of the situation head-on. Strategic Mortgage Default will do its part to radically raise the number of bank-owned for sale in California. And there are lots already.

If you’re planning on selling your house this year, these homes — part of what we call “shadow inventory” — could play a big role in where you can, realistically, set your price. If you’re planning on buying, you’ll want to know how to position yourself to get the best price possible on your purchase.

Strategic Mortgage Default is going to be something you’ll hear more and more about in 2010. Like “short sale”, “REO”, and “foreclosure”, it’ll become part of the daily vernacular.

Pretending that the world is draped in sunshine and rainbows won’t solve anything. It might make people feel better for a while, but it won’t solve anything. Facing reality is the only thing that gets the job done. Your Intero Real Estate professional is ready to deal with reality. Let us know how we can help.

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