We are now halfway through the year – a good time to reflect and to look ahead at what the rest of the year may bring.
For me, I’ve been focusing on market fundamentals and how they may guide real estate buyers over the summer and fall.
While many in our industry this past week focused on Congress’ decision to pass an extension for the Home Buyer Tax Credit – giving buyers under contract another 90 days to close and still qualify for the credit – I feel we should’ve been talking more about jobs.
Jobs should be the focus when looking at ways to fuel long-term housing demand. Jobs create incomes, which are essential to support mortgages on home sales. Without a positive job outlook, the other strong demand fundamentals already in place – rock-bottom interest rates, softened prices – can’t sustain the market alone.
Unfortunately, the news on that front has not been that great:
- Private payroll gains weren’t as high as expected in June – meaning more small businesses cut jobs or refrained from hiring.
- Unemployment rates eased in some cities, but increased in others. At the national level, unemployment inched up .2 percentage points to 9.3 percent from last year’s level.
I know it’s not easy to fill the employment gap as quickly as we’d like to see. But until we get positive news on jobs, the reality is that we’re looking at a long haul for housing. Sure, a new tax credit would help. And the historic low interest rates are definitely working in our favor. But those jobs really are key.
Jobs are what we need for a sustainable, healthy housing demand. Match this with record low interest rates – 4.67 percent last week on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages – and then we might have ourselves a good housing cocktail.
It’s not going to happen overnight. As with everything, we need to practice patience in this recovery and understand which market forces will really make a difference.
It may sound strange to anyone who is without a job or on shaky employment ground, but it really is a great time to be a home buyer – IF your situation is right. If you’re lucky enough to have job security and you also have the means, you are in the middle of some of the cheapest borrowing in history. And you have a lot of inventory to choose from in most markets.
So as we make our way through the second half of the year, let’s focus on the fundamentals that will not only give housing a quick lift, but more importantly sustain upward movement.
