Posts Tagged ‘economy’

Intero Insider: Young Wait for Homeownership – It’s about Money, Not Values

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Millennials – the generation generally defined as those born between 1980 and the mid-1990s – have no interest in buying homes. Or, at least, that’s the latest argument we’re seeing in Forbes, dubbed “Attitudes of Young Americans Bode Ill for Housing.” But, is this really the case? My sense is that it’s much more circumstantial than a foreboding ill will toward homeownership.

The argument hinges on a few key facts and observations: 1) Millennials, for the most part, have no money. The author states that 90% of U.S. born millennials (or “Echo Boomers”) has less than $1,500 in assets. 2) Millennials value education, people and leisure more than other American generations. And 3) Millennials question the importance of homeownership.

No money, no house

That’s the reality of today’s lending market, to be exact. Lenders no longer write no-money down mortgages so it makes sense that a group that generally is strapped for cash wouldn’t be interested in buying a home. Remember too that this generation also is saddled with the highest average amount of school debt than any other before it. They’re facing a tight job market that offers little opportunity for high wages. Putting yourself in these shoes for a moment makes it loud and clear why buying a home – the largest purchase of your life – is not going to be top of mind.

It’s all about the experience of life

Studies have shown that millennials are taking much longer to “settle down” in a career and lay roots in one place. They are taking longer to get married – if at all – and delaying children. These are all life circumstances that tend to spark a home purchase.

The housing boom and bust have left scars

Many millennials express skepticism about housing because they’ve witnessed an unprecedented crazy time in real estate. They may have witnessed their parents cash out tens of thousands of dollars in home equity only to see their home values plunge to depressing levels a few years later.

Any rational person would rightfully walk carefully into a real estate experience after this.

Are millennials really saying they don’t value homeownership or is what they’re really saying that they’d rather wait until they are ready? Who wants a mortgage payment when you’re still traveling the world, experiencing different jobs and career paths and haven’t yet taken the plunge with a lifelong mate? Can’t blame them for that, really.

These folks are still young. The economy is still not optimal for them. I don’t believe for one minute that a delay in home buying has anything to do with millennials’ true view of homeownership. This can be easily seen by the fact that young entrepreneurs who strike it rich almost immediately make a run for real estate. (The San Francisco Chronicle recently discussed this in an article looking at increasing home values in city neighborhoods that seem to be impacted directly by the success of young tech companies like Zynga and Yelp.)

Millennials will come around to homeownership eventually. Although that delay is what will most impact the recovering market, it’s got nothing to do with values.


From luxury to bank-owned, a review of this summer’s real estate market

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This Intero Insider – Video Series brings you Dominic Nicoli, one of our top real estate agents at Intero Real Estate Services from the Los Altos office. He speaks candidly with Intero COO Tom Tognoli and shares his insight and projections on today’s real estate market from luxury real estate to foreclosures – where we have been, where we are now, and where we are headed.


Intero Insider: How to Save $67,960 on Your Next Home Purchase

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Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. debt rating this month sparked speculation about what the effects would be on stock, bond and key interest rate markets. A lot of conversations centered around the prediction that interest rates for mortgages would increase dramatically, damaging an already delicate housing recovery.

So far, the opposite is true. We’re talking down, down and down again. In the tumultuous days following the S&P downgrade, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 4.32%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

I realize I’m the CEO of a real estate company so you’d expect me to say this: But, now truly is an opportune time to borrow money for real estate if your finances are in a solid, healthy state. Borrowers who lock in super low rates stand to save a substantial amount of money over the life of a mortgage.

Take this example: A borrower with a $450,000 30-year mortgage with a 4.3% interest rate would have a monthly payment of $2,227 and pay a total of $351,692 in interest. If their rate on their fixed-rate mortgage had been 5%, they’d pay $2,416 a month and $67,960 more in interest over the 30 years.

Substantial!

Could rates go even lower? Who knows? Seriously. We don’t know. However, S&P also downgraded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which means borrowing could get more expensive for the mortgage giants. That increase likely gets passed on to consumers.

Even if you refinanced last year at an average 5.5%, a rate drop to below 4.5% is worth a check-in on the math of refinancing. When rates really do start moving up, you don’t want to look back and think “I wish I’d…”

Interest rates really do matter. So if you are on the fence or if you’re an agent with buyers who are on the fence, do some math to see your/your client’s total savings. It’s as good a time as any to borrow money. Talk to your mortgage advisor today!


Commercial Real Estate Market Insight with Steve Becerra

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This Intero Insider-Video Series brings you Steve Becerra, one of the top real estate agents at Intero Real Estate Services from the Saratoga office. Steve has been in the business for over 20 years and is an expert on the commercial real estate market, owning his own brokerage business for 10 years. Steve speaks with Intero COO Tom Tognoli and shares his knowledge about the current condition of the commercial market both locally and globally as well as giving us his insight about what to expect in the future.


Intero Insider: Gas Prices Throw a Wrench in Housing Rebound

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It’s looking more and more like the rebound in housing markets across the country won’t rear its head until 2012. At the end of last year, many folks expected more slow and steady recovery in 2011, but even that seems optimistic.

Why? A few reasons, of course. But the biggest and easiest scapegoat right now is gas.

Have you visited the pump lately? Each week, the cost of filling up is rising so fast you think your final price must be a mistake. That’s not for my car, you think. But it is.

Historically, the price of gas is a serious enough issue for many Americans to cause a chain reaction of paralysis on consumer spending. It starts with the trade-offs like less eating out and shopping, then seeps into small changes like fewer car trips and different commuting habits, then onto downsizing – smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. Then finally, it gets into our heads.

And when it gets into our heads, we start to feel uncertain about the economic future (as if we weren’t there already). This very psychology is enough to derail major purchasing decisions like buying a house or car, or making risky but beneficial moves with your business or career.

The other thing to think about with gas prices and the effect on housing is location. In many parts of the country, your car is your only means of travel. If we continue to see climbs in gas prices and sustained high prices like some are anticipating, then eventually this will start to impact how we think about where to live.

Suddenly, the “Can I live here?” question includes a lot more considerations.

As we move through the market this year, we had expected some obstacles thrown in from a new lending atmosphere and congressional attempts to regulate. We expected slow growth due to a slow job market. But did we stop to think about something as seemingly unrelated as the price of gasoline? Maybe not. But now it’s time to realize how these things affect everything around us – big and small. And housing is definitely one of them.


Intero Insider: Google Says Hello to Real Estate

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Google is an economic force to be reckoned with here in the Bay Area – and especially in Silicon Valley. The Internet pioneer employs more than 20,000 people, and they would seem to be among the happiest employees on earth.

The company’s latest news to hit the streets: it has jumped into real estate.

This news, however, is probably not what you’d expect. Google did not release an all-encompassing super-powered Internet search experience for home listings. Rather, the Mountain View-based giant is creating an $86-million Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) fund that will subsidize the construction and operation of 480 affordable rental units in seven communities in the West and Midwest for seniors and low-income families.

Google must have realized that there is no shortage of ways to help in the real estate arena offline. The fund apparently is not the first effort – Google recently invested in two other low-income housing projects for seniors in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County.

So far, none of the projects have been in Google’s backyard in Mountain View, but it’s not really Google picking and choosing where the money goes. For that, they rely on the fund manager.

It’s nice to see philanthropic efforts by major U.S. corporations hit home like this. Affordable housing indeed is a problem in many areas and may get worse if the economy continues to disappoint.

Google’s investment comes at a time when many developers of low-income housing projects face huge financial hurdles and lack of funds. It is unusual for a technology company to fund projects like this. This move shows how the investor base for affordable housing is expanding beyond traditional means like banks.

It will be really interesting to see whether other large companies follow suit. As I mentioned, there are certainly a lot of projects needing funding and affordable housing is a social issue that is easy to get behind.


Intero Insider: What Lower Demand Means

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The data on the street points to lower demand for homes and increased supply throughout the end of the year. This is a recipe for market slowdown, for sure. But the news means different things to different people and entities.

Here is my take:

Home buyers: The best news is first. Buyers have it made right now. Interest rates are now at all-time lows. Not historic or near historic, but all-time lows.

And of course the higher inventory and lower demand in many markets gives the buyer more to choose from and more negotiating power simply because there is less competition from other buyers.

Bottom line for home buyers is that this news is good – excellent, in fact.

Home sellers: Simple math and physics tell us that when one side of a scale is up, the other side is down. Sellers may be on the down side of the equation here, but there is an upside. Fortunately, for the seller, this simple math can never account for the intangibles like an elite neighborhood, amazing schools, or the emotion that often is real estate.

Every sale needs just one buyer – the right one. When this occurs, the seller gets what he or she needs and moves on.

Bottom line for home sellers is that it may be tough, but definitely not impossible. If your location is coveted or your home has a lot of other appeal, there’s no need to fret.

The housing industry: Slowdown for the second half of the year, but not a halt. Be prepared for longer deals and more hurdles. These may be frustrating times, but many successful entrepreneurs are made in times of economic hardship. Be patient, work hard and don’t be afraid to innovate. Now is not the time to retreat.

Bottom line for the industry is that these slow times will weed out the weakest professionals.

Renters: Fewer home buyers can mean more renters so look for much more competition when you’re searching for your next rental. Rents may climb in some markets.

Bottom line for renters is that it may not be the best time to look for a new place. If you are financially and psychologically ready to become a homeowner, you might want to check out your buying options instead.

The economy: A slow housing market is not the greatest news for the economy as a whole. But the underlying factors causing the slow housing market are actually of more concern to the economy right now – slow job growth, massive deficit, deflation risks.

Bottom line is that the housing market will continue to be a topic of discussion in Washington. Look for more programs or program ideas to help tip the scales to faster growth.

To conclude, you see there are winners and losers in the low-demand, high-supply scenario. It’s all in how you see it. Opportunities are there for everyone.


IT’S AMERICA’S TIME TO SHINE

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If you’ve been noticing the headlines recently, you’ve seen that some European countries are going through extremely difficult economics problems. The headlines you’ve probably seen the most have been about Greece. Their government spending was way out of whack, and their economy is paying the price.

The other countries having hard times are Portugal, Italy and Spain, and when you add Greece, the initials for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain spell out PIGS. You may have seen this term in the news.

Why do I point this out?  Why is this at all relevant to selling homes and getting mortgages for homebuyers?

The reason I find this relevant and interesting is that the PIGS countries are just starting to sink into their economic problems.  They’re going through now what we went through two years ago.

They’re just starting to grapple with their problems, and we’re starting to come out of our recession.

Two years ago a lot of Americans thought the world was coming to an end.  Washington Mutual, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Indy Mac all failed, and AIG, General Motors, and our biggest banks had to get emergency financing from our government.

Serious people on the news and in the newspapers would ask if the Bank of America would fail, and when questions like this can be part of our national dialogue, you know people are scared.

Things are different now.


Intero Insider: Reality Check!

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Each time a glimmer of positive news about the real estate market shows its face, economists, real estate professionals, and politicians alike begin to shout, “We’re on our way back up! Nothing but blue skies ahead!”

While I remain hopeful, I think assertions like this are foolhardy and irresponsible.

Anyone who lives in the State of California, or who’s considered moving here, knows that the real estate market for the past several years has been pretty grim. As quickly as California’s home values increased through 2005, they have since fallen considerably due to the economic downturn, and foreclosures have run rampant.

Recently, some improvements have been noted. In the last S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, for example, home prices in California were shown to have strong gains. In Los Angeles, prices rose 1.8% in January. There were gains in San Diego of 0.9% and in San Francisco, the gain was 0.6%.

This is terrific news, make no mistake, but I suggest that a more cautious view be taken.

Here’s why.

Historically, spring home sales (and the spring market doesn’t wait til March to begin, I assure you) are the strongest of any throughout the year. Weather improves, making it more pleasant to look at homes, and people want to be able to buy a new home, so that they can move at the end of the school year, or what-have-you.

This year, we also have the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit driving more buyers into the marketplace. Add to this the fact that mortgage rates are still at rock-bottom levels, which have been made possible, in large part due to the Federal Government’s sizable activity in mortgage-backed securities, and the market for buyers is very, very attractive.

Here’s where things get sticky.

The tax credit is set to expire in just a couple of weeks. The pressure to buy before it expires will be gone. Strike one. The Federal government is about to remove itself from the mortgage-backed securities game. Mortgage rates are going to rise. Strike two. There’s wide speculation that foreclosures are going to get worse before they get better (unfortunately). Strike three.

At Intero, we choose to stay level-headed. We choose to stay in the game that’s currently being played, not the one that may or may not come in the near future. We are hopeful that things will improve, but until they do, you need agents who are dealing with reality. You need agents who will tell you like it is. Agents who know the markets in which they work and live. Intero are those agents.


Intero Insider: A Delicate Balance

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For the past two years or so, our nation’s economy has been floundering, doing all it could to get its head above water. The real estate industry has played — and continues to play — rather a large role in how the story pans out. But contributing to successes and failures in our own industry are untold numbers of mitigating factors, from fraudulent lending and sub-prime mortgages, to over-inflated sales prices, foreclosures, tax credits, and the some of the best sales prices in recent memory. When working together properly, these things can spur wonderful upward movement.

When something is knocked even slightly askew, however, that delicate balance can be thrown into a tailspin.

There has been great news of late, of course. Many neighborhoods across the nation have seen upticks in sales prices, many listings are, once again, seeing multiple offers, and interest rates are at astonishingly low levels.

Now, though, we are holding our collective breath, as several things that have helped spur the market along are poised to come to a halt.

First, the homebuyer tax credit. It’s been credited (no pun intended) with getting a lot of buyers into the market that wouldn’t have been otherwise. It was expanded in the Fall, but will expire this Spring.

Strike one.

Second, foreclosures. As we’ve reported already, the incidence of foreclosure continues to rise. Many homeowners in financial distress are simply making the decision to walk away from their homes, and their debts right along with them.

Strike two.

Third, we have another wrinkle. Those low interest rates that we just mentioned? They’re due in large part to Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Thus far, the Fed’s purchases total almost $1.25 trillion dollars, but those purchases are due to stop near the end of March. This move will likely cause interest rates to turn upward. How much will they rise? That remains to be seen, but initial estimates have them climbing by more than a percentage point by year’s end.

Strike three.

These three factors coming together at roughly the same time could, potentially, throw the tenuous balance and modest signs of recovery we’ve seen thus far completely off kilter. The ever-changing conditions make the handling of a real estate transaction, whether for a buyer or a seller, all the more difficult. Intero’s real estate professionals stay up-to-date with the latest trends and will know which will affect you, and which won’t.

Negotiating the most important financial decisions of your life requires all of the information.  Your Intero real estate professional has that information and will help you keep things in balance.