posted by Rick Soukoulis, Chairman & CEO of The Loan Source
Did rates moving up over the last couple of weeks make your heart stop? Fear not, Uncle Sam is on the job. In fact the current U.S. mortgage market feels a lot like the diamond industry.
How’s that? If you know a little about the diamond industry, you know that DeBeers pretty much sets the prices.
It strikes me as very similar to what our government is doing with interest rates. The government has decided to keep rates low and the fed is doing everything possible to accomplish this. It’s working.
The reason why is pretty apparent. Although the stimulus package will put lots of dollars to work, there’s nothing quite like millions of homeowners having $300-400 extra every month because they refinanced into a lower rate. There’s nothing like these lower payments to help families to pay their bills easier or to have a few extra dollars they can spend. Also, with home affordability at an all time high buyers are back IN THE MARKET.
And there’s nothing like it to stimulate the economy.
The Federal Reserve has been buying hundreds of billions in mortgage backed securities, and they’ve been buying every day of every week.
Like with anything else when someone is buying huge quantities, it drives the price upwards. Higher prices on mortgage securities mean lower interest rates on mortgages.
When you look at the Fed activity, it looks like 4.5-5.5% is the level they’re trying to maintain. Rates bounce around within that general area, but when they get a little too high; the Fed is driving them down. Just as we are seeing now that rates are at 5.5% which is the higher end of the fed’s desired range. Watch for rates to move lower in the coming days.
A big part of why they’re doing this is that the economy is still fragile. It doesn’t feel like we’re in free-fall anymore, but foreclosures are still raging through the land and layoffs are still occurring.
Lenders and the government are working closely together towards the same goal: Keep rates low, knowing that refinances and lower monthly payments will go a long ways to repairing the economy.
If DeBeers can manipulate the price of diamonds, our government, with all sorts of tools at its disposal, can certainly manipulate and move interest rates.
And they absolutely will do so to keep rates down and get the economy moving again.
It’s worked in the past, and I’m positive it will work this time.
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