Archive for December, 2011

Intero Insider: Young Wait for Homeownership – It’s about Money, Not Values

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Millennials – the generation generally defined as those born between 1980 and the mid-1990s – have no interest in buying homes. Or, at least, that’s the latest argument we’re seeing in Forbes, dubbed “Attitudes of Young Americans Bode Ill for Housing.” But, is this really the case? My sense is that it’s much more circumstantial than a foreboding ill will toward homeownership.

The argument hinges on a few key facts and observations: 1) Millennials, for the most part, have no money. The author states that 90% of U.S. born millennials (or “Echo Boomers”) has less than $1,500 in assets. 2) Millennials value education, people and leisure more than other American generations. And 3) Millennials question the importance of homeownership.

No money, no house

That’s the reality of today’s lending market, to be exact. Lenders no longer write no-money down mortgages so it makes sense that a group that generally is strapped for cash wouldn’t be interested in buying a home. Remember too that this generation also is saddled with the highest average amount of school debt than any other before it. They’re facing a tight job market that offers little opportunity for high wages. Putting yourself in these shoes for a moment makes it loud and clear why buying a home – the largest purchase of your life – is not going to be top of mind.

It’s all about the experience of life

Studies have shown that millennials are taking much longer to “settle down” in a career and lay roots in one place. They are taking longer to get married – if at all – and delaying children. These are all life circumstances that tend to spark a home purchase.

The housing boom and bust have left scars

Many millennials express skepticism about housing because they’ve witnessed an unprecedented crazy time in real estate. They may have witnessed their parents cash out tens of thousands of dollars in home equity only to see their home values plunge to depressing levels a few years later.

Any rational person would rightfully walk carefully into a real estate experience after this.

Are millennials really saying they don’t value homeownership or is what they’re really saying that they’d rather wait until they are ready? Who wants a mortgage payment when you’re still traveling the world, experiencing different jobs and career paths and haven’t yet taken the plunge with a lifelong mate? Can’t blame them for that, really.

These folks are still young. The economy is still not optimal for them. I don’t believe for one minute that a delay in home buying has anything to do with millennials’ true view of homeownership. This can be easily seen by the fact that young entrepreneurs who strike it rich almost immediately make a run for real estate. (The San Francisco Chronicle recently discussed this in an article looking at increasing home values in city neighborhoods that seem to be impacted directly by the success of young tech companies like Zynga and Yelp.)

Millennials will come around to homeownership eventually. Although that delay is what will most impact the recovering market, it’s got nothing to do with values.


Intero Insider: Higher Loan Limits Offer Real Help in High-Priced Markets

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The housing market is rife with good news lately, if you know which stats and announcements to look for and how to interpret them. Sure, we’re not reveling in record-high home sales or value increases, but it’s not all bad in some markets, including our very own Bay Area. At Intero, we have seen record sales in 2010 and 2011.

Perhaps the best news I’ve heard in the last quarter that directly impacts us was that lawmakers in Washington reversed a recent lowering of the maximum loan limits that could be backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Just before Thanksgiving, lawmakers decided to once again raise these loan limits, opening up more financing options for buyers in higher priced markets.

The new guidelines mean that the FHA will be able to back loans up to $729,750 for the next two years in the nation’s most expensive real estate markets. The higher conforming loan limits had expired Oct. 1, reducing them down to $625,500.

This is good news for California buyers – especially those for whom an FHA-backed loan is the best option. FHA-insured loans enable buyers to put down as little as 3.5% on a mortgage loan, though they tend to carry higher closing costs. With an ever tightening credit market, FHA-backed loans have come back in vogue in many areas, enabling buyers to secure mortgages they weren’t able to get in the private market.

This is an example of a clear win and instance when the government’s involvement in the housing recovery indeed serves to help buyers and sellers. The move helps sellers as it opens up more financing options for buyers in expensive markets.

This is also a win because unlike some of the other programs lawmakers have passed in an attempt to help struggling homeowners, the FHA actually does have a significant hand in the market today. While the FHA insured only 5% of mortgages in the U.S. in 2006, it insured a third of all loans written in 2010.

So if I had a wish list for 2012 real estate, more measures like this would be on it. We need to continue to seek easy opportunities to make home buying easier for those buyers who are financially capable, yet meet too many loan restrictions or unattainable down payment requirements. To keep the housing recovery engine going, we need to find ways to fuel demand without weakening lending standards.

This news may not save the market, but it at least will accomplish that.


Intero Insider: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in Real Estate Data

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As we inch closer to the end of 2011, we’re seeing a lot of positive activity in the housing market. However, it’s best not to be fooled by rose-colored glasses as we’re still looking at a slow recovery that’s taking much, much longer than anyone ever expected.

The Good

Existing home sales were up in October, and pending home sales grew by 10.4% that month, according to the National Association of Realtors – both great signs for the housing economy. Pending sales are watched closely by analysts and economists because they indicate the number of homes that are locked into purchase contracts, meaning they will, in most cases, become sales stats in the following months.

In another good bit of news, delinquencies on mortgages were down 28% in October from their highest point in January of 2010, according to research firm LPS. This means the rate at which homes are going into foreclosure has slowed down.

The Bad

Now for the bad news: LPS has also reported that 4.29% of all homes with mortgages were in some state of foreclosure in October, up from 4.18% the previous month.

The Ugly

In addition, homes that are in foreclosure are spending much more time in the process, on average. LPS found that the average loan in foreclosure has been delinquent for 631 days – nearly 21 months, a new record.

The stretched foreclosure process is the bad news here because it stands to prolong the recovery even further. The more the backlog of foreclosures sits, the longer it takes to move them off the books. So even though fewer homes are going into foreclosure, the homes that are there are taking much longer to get through the process, so the entire pool of foreclosure properties actually grows.

I’m betting that we’ll see more government interest in this data as we move into 2012. Much of the foreclosure process slow-down was created as a result of the “robo-signing” fiasco that forced lenders to slow down and be more meticulous with paperwork.

But, as we’ve seen with a lot of federal policy on lending and housing, it’s often the case that plugging up one hole springs a leak somewhere else. In other words, the government’s investigation of the foreclosure process – which had to be done – has contributed more to the problem.

I’m not letting the bad news get me down, though. With the somewhat positive results in unemployment numbers that came out last week, and the movement we’re seeing in home sales and pending sales, I think there’s enough evidence to forecast more slow growth in the market next year.