Archive for November, 2009

2010 market forecast: The long recovery continues

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After three years of pain, the housing market appears to at last be on the mend.

The California Association of Realtors is projecting a median price increase of 3.3% in 2010. This would have looked anemic just a few years ago, but comes as welcome news to homeowners who have watched their finances – and, in many cases, their lives – turned upside down by collapsing values.

The National Association of Realtors predicts the number of home sales to increase by 13.6% percent in 2010 – fueled, in part, by a rosy forecast for interest rates, which the association sees remaining low through 2010.

At Intero, our view of the Northern California market is not much different. We expect to see continued vitality in the first-time homebuyer market, which accounts for nearly half of all volume. The expansion and extension of the homebuyer tax credit combined with an extremely favorable interest rate environment will see to that.

Vital signs improve in the move-up market

But the key to any housing recovery over my more than three decades in this business has been the “move-up market.” Until those who sell to all those first time buyers in turn move up, the market remains tepid. In 2009, we saw few signs of improvement here due to the huge number of bank owned properties. These properties are not owned by people who move up – they are owned by institutions purging bad assets. You see the problem.

While we do not see this changing dramatically in 2010, we do expect the move-up market (and, in time, the luxury market) to show signs of life for three reasons:

  1. The expansion of the home buyer tax credit beyond first-timers
  2. The middle and upper segments of the market offer prices that are still dramatically lower then their 2005 highs (as opposed to the entry-level market, where prices have already risen from their bottom and multiple-offer scenarios are now commonplace)
  3. The relative strength of the tech sector in Northern California will continue to increase as the economy recovers, fueling demand in the upper strata of the market

Are happy days here again?

Surely, things are looking better heading into 2010 than they have in a long time. While the twin specters of unemployment and foreclosure will continue to exact a toll, it will be less severe. We are moving to a normal market.

But here is my caveat: Normal is not what we experienced in the 2001-2005 bubble. Do not expect credit to become as easy to obtain as it was (and may some of the more “creative” loan products from those days rest in peace!) and do not expect home values to snowball at reality-defying rates.

Those days are gone, at least for now.

But if you want to find a place to live at a reasonable price, if you seek to sell into a market with a strengthening level of demand, and if you believe in the undeniable value of real estate as a long-term investment … well, 2010 may just be your year.


Small Steps Gets a Giant Donation from Intero

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In our blog below, Gino Blefari, founder and CEO of Intero Real Estate Services, discusses the Intero Foundation and the $1,367,365 donation to local charities.  A lot of Intero Realtors have donated large sums for the Intero Foundation to decipher which nonprofits will be most receptive and deserving of the funds.  The Foundation has made an impact close to home, and I was lucky enough to see the benefits that it brings to the community.

Serving over 375 children with help from over 400 volunteers, Intero Foundation donated $15,000 to Hollister’s annual nonprofit Small Steps Shopping Trip.  Every year before the chilly weather starts kicking into full gear, underprivileged children get the opportunity to shop at Hollister’s Target and Payless Shoe Source to find shoes and a jacket within a budget.

At 6 AM I was all registered and lined up with the other shopper volunteers waiting to be paired up with a boy or girl ranging from all ages under 18.  I was matched up with a grateful 7th grader from a local middle school, and he was very prepared with a list of items he wanted to get with correct sizes.  He scooped out the stores the night before with his mom to see all that he can buy and get out in a jiffy.  By the end of our trip he was beginning to look like Santa Clause with his shopping bags full of two pairs of shoes, two pairs of pants, a winter jacket, and two packages of socks.  He was prepared for a cold winter, but you can tell his heart was warm with love and thankfulness by his smiles.

After we parted ways, you cannot help but get a warm fuzzy feeling inside that makes your eyes teary.  I might not have been able to donate $15,000 for Small Steps to impact hundreds of children, but I sure made a difference to one child.  I want to thank the Intero Foundation for not only making such a generous donation to a repeating successful event, but for the opportunity to personally change a life.


Mortgage Rates are the REAL Stars of the Show

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Unless you’ve been living under a rock of late, you know that escaping discussion and news pertaining to the newly-revised, revamped and retooled Homebuyer Tax Credit has been next to impossible. True, it’s big news.

But has the attention that’s been shone on the tax credit been keeping us all from focusing on the REAL stars of the real estate show? Is there something else that ought to have everyone’s tongues wagging?

In my opinion, YES.

Mortgage rates, my friends, are what should be driving traffic into the real estate market and are what will give today’s homebuyers (those who qualify for the tax credit and who don’t) a real incentive to buy.

Look at it this way: when given a credit of $8000, how will most people spend it? Will they save it? Likely not. Will it go toward bills? Maybe. The instinct for most Americans, however, is to spend. This is great for bolstering the economy, but from a personal perspective, it doesn’t help all that much.

Have you ever stopped to consider how much just a percentage point in a mortgage rate can save you over the life of a loan?

For the week ending 11/12/2009, Freddie Mac announced that mortgage rates had fallen to a staggering 4.91%. Not long ago, lenders were delighted to be able to offer a rate of 6.0% (still not anything at which to turn up one’s nose). In a side-by-side comparison, assuming a loan amount of $400,000, a mortgage with a 6% rate will feature a monthly payment of about $2398. The same mortgage at a rate of 4.91% has a monthly payment of $2125. That’s a savings of a little over $270 per month. Nothing to sneeze at, to be sure. Here’s where it gets really exciting, though. Over the course of a 30-year loan, that savings adds up to more than $98,000.

 Now THAT is something to get excited about.

Another great benefit of rates falling to record lows is that they give buyers more purchasing power. Less money going toward interest translates into more house for your money. When combined with home prices that, across the nation, are at levels not seen since the early 2000s, a buyer’s purchasing power is very strong, indeed.

If you’re unsure of the amount for which you might qualify, talk to your Intero agent about giving you a referral to an Intero Mortgage loan officer.

The Homebuyer Tax Credit is certainly newsworthy. But it shouldn’t be stealing center stage from the real stars. Mortgage rates and their record low levels are what should be making headlines.


12 Reasons Why It’s Great to be a Dog in Los Altos

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1.  It’s a Great Place for a Walk!

Los Altos is a “walker-friendly” town with miles of quiet residential streets to explore, as well as several great parks. Just remember to bring a flashlight – with the scarcity of street lights in Los Altos, it can be hard to see!

2. A Little Shopping is always Fun
A little exercise can make a dog hungry! Check out the 5 Paw Bakery (315 Main Street)– where they bake such canine culinary confections as birthday cakes, yogurt and carob-dipped cookies and savory biscuits.

3. Coffee and Canines
Catch up with dog and human friends alike at one of the coffee shops in Los Altos. You’ll almost always see at least one dog sharing the love outside Starbucks (296 Main Street & 643 Los Altos Rancho), Peets (367 State Street) and Main Street Café (134 Main Street).

4. Fine Doggie Dining
When it’s time for more than a cup of coffee – enjoy a great meal on a dog-friendly patio.  The staff will even bring a bowl of water for your canine friends!

5. Ouchies Fixed 24 x 7
The Adobe Animal Hospital is open 7 days a week, 24 hours per day, providing regular and emergency vet services for dogs and other pets. From regular preventative check-ups to fast attention during an unexpected emergency – it’s reassuring to be able to go to one place.  Ask someone in Los Altos which vet they use – and chances are – they’ll say Adobe.

6. Buff and Fluff
The staff at the Barking Lot (467 First Street) makes sure that Fido and Princess look sharp for their strolls through the Village. From nail clipping to baths, clips and coifs – this is the place for the latest Los Altos canine look!

7. Hanging out at Home
Some days – it’s great to just hang around home. The median lot size in Los Altos is just about a quarter acre – bigger than the average lot size in Palo Alto and Mountain View.  The kids and the dog need lots of room to romp!

8. Room to Run
Los Altos does not yet have its own dog park – but it is considering working with the City of Cupertino and Santa Clara county to build one. In the meantime- check out the nearby dog parks in Mountain View and Palo Alto  (Mountain
View Shoreline Dog Park
) and Palo Alto (Mitchell Dog Park).

9. Need a SPaw Day?
When your pooch needs pampering – it’s time for a short drive to the Pooch Hotel in Sunnyvale. Here, your favorite companion can enjoy the swim facilities, personal trainers, aromatherapy baths, facials, massages, and pawdicures.

10. Certified Canine Design & Construction
John Hammerschmidt of Hammerschmidt Construction in Los Altos jokingly refers to himself as a “Certified Canine Designer”.  Having completed multiple Los Altos remodels with custom canine features,  John is well-versed in designing fido-friendly features including dog washes, dog runs and landscaping, custom breed-specific tiling, and scratch-resistant flooring.

11. Ms. Manners
Does your dog need a visit from Ms. Manners?  Maybe it’s time for obedience classes. Some the best local classes are taught by the Deep Peninsula Dog Training Club at nearby Rengstorff Park.

12. Strut Your Stuff!
Since 1947, the Los Altos Kiwanis Club sponsors the Annual Los Altos Pet Parade on the Saturday following Mother’s Day each year. It features thousands of kids, their pets, and some very creative costumes!


Holiday Dilemma: Is this a good time to list my home for sale?

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In these unique, uncertain market conditions, determining the optimum time for the sale of your home can be a confusing task, particularly as the prime selling season of spring and summer wanes. But consider these points if you are thinking of listing your home in the next 30 days:

1. Buyers looking for a home during the winter/holidays are generally more serious in their searches. Often these buyers have a very specific time frame and objective so their motivation is high.
2. The inventory of homes generally declines during the latter part of the year so there could be less competition for your home.
3. By selling now, a seller has the opportunity to be a non-contingent buyer during the spring when the inventory traditionally grows.
4. Some buyers have time constraints and will be highly motivated to purchase before the year’s end.
5. Buyers may have a break from work during the holidays and, consequently, may have more time to shop and preview homes.
6. Holiday decorations can make homes more appealing and attractive.
7. Because of the holidays, you can still be on the market but have the option to restrict showings during the peak holiday times.

No matter what time frame you may choose to list your home, be sure to consult with a qualified Intero Realtor to get sound counseling and advice.


What the heck is the Fed up to?

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The Federal Reserve Board may be the least understood institution in America and about which people know the least.  But in these trying times, their role has not only been big.  It’s been critical.  The Fed has probably done more to get the economy moving again than all the government spending and bailout programs combined.

 About 85% of all mortgages made today are being put into mortgage backed securities. These securities are being created primary by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both of which are now 80% owned by the government.  In past, these securities were bought by banks, mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds.  These same investors are still buying, but in general, they are buying a whole lot less than they did before the credit crunch of 2008-09.

In order to drive rates lower, the Fed has stepped in and been buying massive amounts of mortgage securities.  As a matter of simple supply and demand, massive buying will drive bond prices up, and as bonds prices rise, rates drop.  Thus, the Fed made a conscious decision to buy mortgage securities to drive mortgages rates downward, largely to keep pressure off the American homebuyers and to stimulate housing markets in general.

 The Fed has stepped in as the buyer of last resort, and they are now authorized to buy up to $1.2 trillion in these MBS’s.  They’ve already bought $975 billion, with $225 billion more to be bought.

 They have been buying at a rate of $25 billion a week; just enough to keep rates relatively low, allowing people to refinance at lower rates and for homebuyers to afford new homes.


Holiday Planning in Los Altos

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Los-Altos-Gingerbread-HouseI am in complete denial that Halloween is over, November is well underway, and the merchants have been sneaking holiday decorations and merchandise into their stores for weeks. It’s way too early to talk about plans for the holidays isn’t it?

Maybe not.  Every year – I procrastinate on making holiday plans & then miss out on some events I would have liked to attend.  Not this year.

Here are some of the Los Altos Holiday Events on the calendar for November and December this year.

Friday November 13 - 5 to 9 p.m.
Downtown Holiday Stroll
Enjoy treats & beverages at 50 unique downtown Los Altos shops.  Music by the Peninsula Harmony Chorus.  Free Carriage rides.

November 19 – December 19
The Bus Barn Theatre presents “A Christmas Pudding.”  A low-calorie holiday treat with songs, music and tales from Charles Dickens, Mark Twain, Shakespeare, Emily Dickinson, and George Bernard Shaw.

Sunday November 29 - 6 to 7 p.m.
Festival of Lights Parade
Since 1977 – families have gathered on the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend to celebrate the magic of the holiday season.  Today – over 17,000 people enjoy the annual lighted floats, costumed charaters, and of course Jolly St. Nick himself.   Note that people begin reserving space along the parade route at noon on the day of the parade.

November 30 to December 4
23rd Annual Gingerbread House Exhibit
Hillview Community Center.  Come see the traditional and the modern versions of the classic holiday gingerbread house. If you and your family are really brave – design and build your own gingerbread house for display!  See the website above for entry and exhibit details.

Friday – December 4  -  6 p.m.
Downtown Tree Lighting Ceremony
Lighting the holiday tree feels like the “official” start of the holiday season – the big question is will it rain this year?

Saturday – December 5 – 9 a.m.
Breakfast with Santa. Enjoy pancakes, eggs, sausage, juice, coffee and a visit from Santa at Aldo’s Restaurant, 388 Main Street.   $20 per person.

Sunday, December 6 – 1 to 4 p.m.
Holiday Barn Lighting – Westwind Community Barn
27210 Altamont Rd, Los Altos Hills.  See the arts & crafts; visit Santa in an antique horse carriage; and enjoy live music.

December 11, 12, 13, 18, 19, 20, 26, 27
Holiday Carriage Rides - Enjoy a festive 25-minute carriage ride through beautiful, decorated downtown Los Altos!   The carriages can accommodate 4 adults and 2 children – a perfect family treat!    A carriage ride is $80 and can be reserved at (650) 949-5282.

Friday & Saturday, December 18 & 19 – 3:00 to 8:30 p.m.
Santa Makes Early House Calls in Los Altos! St. Nick has set aside two days to stop by Los Altos homes for a quick visit.  Los Altos residents only, please.  Call (650) 947-2848 for more information and to register for a visit.

December 21 to 23 -  9 a.m. to 3 p.m.
Camp Candycane - Hilliview Community Center
The summer camp dream team returns for a holiday-themed camp filled with art, projects, gift-making, music and treat-baking!  Call (650) 947-2790 to register.

Friday, January 1  – 9 a.m.
2010 New Year’s Day 5K Fun Run
Community Plaza  (intersection of Main and State Streets).  Run, walk, stroll, roll or skate with your family and friends.  No bikes.  Dogs on leashes are welcome.  Free event.  No registration is needed.

And whatever your holiday plans may be – I hope to be the first to wish you and yours – Happy Holidays!


Intero Insider: The (Not Just) First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, Expanded & Explained

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After much speculation by the general populace (and the real estate industry) and much consternation by Congress, the much-anticipated extension of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit has been passed.

Passed, not to mention greatly expanded.

Whether you’re in favor of or opposed to the credit, it’s now been made available to a host of Americans not included in the initial offering, so how can you take advantage of it? Let’s break it down, shall we?

The original tax credit, which was a part of the economic stimulus package put into effect in February 2009, was made available to first-time homebuyers (people who hadn’t owned a home for three or more years) and applied to home purchases that closed on or before November 30, 2009. With the passage of the expansion bill into law, that credit has been extended to purchases made by May 1, 2010 and that are closed prior to July 1, 2010 (that means escrow is closed, all papers signed and keys are in-hand on or before June 30th).

For first-time homebuyers, the credit amount, as it was in the original plan, remains at 10% of the purchase price, up to a maximum credit of $8,000. Originally, to be eligible for the credit, single (not married) purchasers could have an adjusted gross income (AGI) of no more than $75,000/year; married couples with an AGI of $150,000 or less were eligible. Under the new plan, singles with an AGI of up to $125,000 and married couples with an AGI of up to $225,000 are eligible.

For those of you who had previously been ineligible to claim the credit at all because you already owned a home, there may be good news for you. Under the new plan, homeowners who have lived in their homes for 5 consecutive years of the past 8 years are eligible to receive a credit toward a new home purchase. Meant to give a boost to “move-up” buyers, this credit amount can be 10% of the purchase price, up to $6,500. The income caps referenced above are the same.

If you’re a member of the Armed Services and were/will be deployed outside the United States for at least 90 days between December 31, 2008 – May 1, 2010, you may claim the credit until May 1, 2011 (with settlement all wrapped up before July 1, 2011).

One peculiarity of which it’s important to take note: even if you purchase a new home in 2010, you can claim the credit on your 2009 tax return. If you file for an extension of time to file your income taxes, or if you amend your already-filed 2009 tax return, you may include the tax credit (this would put the cash in your pocket much sooner than if you were to claim the credit on your 2010 tax return). Be sure, however, to take heed of the income limitations, as they apply to the year in which you claim the credit.

Finally, it’s important that you understand that if the purchase price of the home exceeds $800,000, no tax credit may be claimed, regardless of your income levels. The credit only applies to primary residences. Investment properties or vacation homes don’t qualify.

Whether the expansion and extension of this credit is the shot in the arm that the US Economy needs remains to be seen, but it’s here, it’s ready and, if you’re planning on purchasing a new home, you should most certainly take advantage of it. Talk to your Intero agent or consult your financial advisor to discuss how this affects YOU.


The First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit is Likely to be Extended

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Of late, all the buzz in the real estate industry — and in much of the overall news, in fact — has been about the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. Credited (no pun intended) with giving the national real estate market a much-needed shot in the arm, the credit is scheduled, at the time of this writing, to go to a vote before Congress in the next few hours, and is likely to be not just extended, but expanded to benefit some current homeowners, as well.

There’s no question that the national economy is in a time of crisis. There’s no question that the real estate industry lies near the very heart of that crisis, and we all want to see its recovery.

A large part of the Federal Government’s economic stimulus package, the FTHTC is set to expire at the end of this month. Any real estate transaction that closes prior to midnight on November 30th, and whose buyers are first-time (meaning that they haven’t owned a home in 3 or more years) buyers, qualifies to receive an $8000 tax credit.

Certainly, many buyers have taken advantage of it (they would have been crazy not to).

Now, the government is set to vote on an expansion of the tax credit. The credit would not just be extended into next year, its terms would extend to homeowners who’ve been in their homes for five or more years (provided that they would be moving “up”), and would apply to buyers with higher incomes.

There are two other superstars playing roles in the real estate market right now: record-low interest rates and low, low, low home prices. Those two characters alone carry a huge amount of influence (as well they should) and should be the things motivating buyers — both new and experienced — to buy homes.

An extension of the Credit will no doubt magnify the impact of these forces.