Luxury Insider: The Price is Right in Tokyo

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For as long as I have been a firm believer in global real estate and an active practitioner of that exclusive sport, I have seen the name “Tokyo” on top of the list of the most expensive cities in the world. Once in a while, another city steals for a year this controversial claim-to-fame, like London, or Paris, or Hong Kong… but Tokyo is always up there, number one or number two on the list, no matter what, no matter when.

Obviously there is a host of reasons why real estate in Tokyo (and the rest of Japan) is so expensive. That’s what you call supply & demand, and purely domestic demand is plenty enough to push prices up. Imagine 127 million people (the entire population of Japan) living in an area not even as big as California but with 3 1/2 times more people.

To exacerbate the challenge, only about a quarter of the country is suitable for residential purposes, due to the abundant forests and mountains. This makes Japan one of the most populated countries anywhere. Tokyo is the best (or worst) illustration of the phenomenon. Nine million people reside within the city limits, but “Greater Tokyo” is home to about 30 million people! How about that for real estate demand?

Of course people alone don’t create high real estate values. You need another ingredient. It takes money to buy real estate. And money, Japan always managed to make plenty. After all, Japan is the third biggest economic powerhouse in the world. The wealth produced by this mighty economy has trickled down to the population, giving million the ability to buy a home or to rent.

A couple of months ago, Forbes published its list of the most pricey cities, based on data provided by Savills (global real estate services company). Sure enough, Tokyo was up-there, number two behind Hong Kong.  Knowing that, in Hong Kong, a luxury home can go for $13,000 a square foot and that Tokyo is not far behind, you get the idea that home ownership is not for everyone!

To further play hard-to-get, Tokyo was recently listed as the most expensive city to live in (aside from real estate prices) in a CNN Money survey conducted by Jon Copestake. I learned there that a loaf of bread in Tokyo sells for $9 and that you will pay around $1,266 for a high end 3 course dinner for 4 with wine. It actually is not too bad considering that the same feast would cost you $2,177 in Paris!

Well, I have good news for you, if you ever wanted to buy a home in Tokyo or wisely invest your money there. Times are changing. Believe it or not, investors (foreign or domestic) are now making deals. The timing for buyers reached a zenith it had not seen in a long time.

The reason is not the infamous “Lost Decade” of the 90’s which cleaned out a lot of savings, individual investments and pension funds after a huge and long-lasting economic boom and price bubble. That loss has long been absorbed.  It is not either the restrictive policies put in place then to reduce speculation, nor is it the effect of the global economic slowdown of 2000. No, the reason for what we may call a “buyers’ market” is just the on-going slide of the yen on the currencies market…

In just a matter of a few weeks, the yen has shrunk about 20%! We are not talking about buying frenzy in the residential real estate arena yet, but foreign investors are sweating looking at opportunities. Makes great sense. As the Livedoor News reported a week ago or so, if an off-shore buyer had put off purchasing a $100M apartment in Tokyo last year, he would “only” need to come up with $80M now to close the deal!

Now you know what to do with your money. Don’t wait, discounts don’t last forever!


Intero Insider: A Close Look at First-Time Home Buyers

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We’re just a few baby steps into the recovery. Interest rates are still unbelievably low. And markets are either saturated in foreclosures and underwater borrowers (though this is improving) or have emaciated inventories.

Regardless of which end of the spectrum your market is in right now, first-time buyers are an essential part of the housing market ecosystem. They fuel the move-up market, and create legions of homeowners who instantly become more vested in the communities they live in.

What does today’s first-time home buyer look like?

Doorsteps recently published an infographic offering a glimpse, based on data from the National Association of Realtors and a report on Millennials. Here’s what they found:

  • 55% are married couples, 19% are single females, 14% are unmarried couples, and 11% are single males.
  • The average age is 31. And average income is $61,800.
  • Location is more important to these buyers than the size of the house. They are more likely to compromise on condition and style of home than they are on distance to their job, a great neighborhood and great schools.
  • 96% will use a mortgage to buy a house; 76% will use their savings to pay for the downpayment.
  • 65% say they would consider buying a foreclosure property.

While none of this comes across as shocking, it’s interesting to be able to better picture a typical first-time home buyer today. We tend to hear a lot in the media about how our younger generations are saddled with education debt, striking out on the job front and just not that interested – or ready – to buy a home.

That may be true to a large extent, but I’ve said time and again that I don’t think it’s an issue of values and not wanting to become homeowners. It’s more an issue of circumstance.

The underlying fundamentals of first-time buyers are still basically the same they’ve always been. The average age has crept up a bit, but we’re still seeing young couples and more single women.

It’s important, though, that this segment of buyer continue to get a chance and encouragement to get into the housing market. After all, these are the buyers that one day will fuel the move-up market. We must find ways to afford them the opportunity.


Report Ranks Nation’s Largest Real Estate Firms

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According to a recent research report produced by REAL Trends, the 500 largest residential real estate brokerage firms in the nation controlled just over 2 million residential sales transactions in 2012. The transactions represent close to 29.8 percent of all new and resale transactions completed by brokers during the year, yet the REAL Trends 500 represented less than three-fifths of one percent of all brokerage firms. The 500 mega-brokers closed 2,290,269 home transactions with a value of over $624 billion during 2012.

Included in the REAL Trends 500 is Intero Real Estate Services, Inc. headquartered in Cupertino, California. With close to 7,000 transactions closed in 2012 and $4,640,000,000 in residential sales volume, Intero ranked number 13 in the REAL Trends 500.

The 2013 REAL Trends 500 is a compilation of a nationwide study of leading residential real estate companies conducted by REAL Trends, the trusted source for useful and timely information. This year’s survey represents the most comprehensive collection of data assembled on the leaders of the residential brokerage industry. Numbers are documented by outside accounting firms.

“The recovery in housing sales was reflected in the results from the REAL Trends 500,” says REAL Trends editor Steve Murray. “There were a record number of firms that closed more than $1 billion in sales and over 1,000 units. Unit sales were up 15.3 percent overall and total sales volume was up 20.7 percent. There were over 1,300 firms that qualified for either the REAL Trends 500 or the Up and Comer list. Many of the firms that had increased unit sales accomplished this through organic growth while merger activity remained slower than in years past. We expect acquisition activity to pick up, however, in the years to come as the market consolidates.”

REAL Trends, Inc. is a research, publishing and communication company located in Denver serving the information needs of the residential real estate industry.


Luxury Insider: Foreigners in your Homeland…

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It takes a long time to establish credit history…And takes little time to lose it, even when you pay all of your bills on time! What’s wrong with this picture?

I had to smile reading Karen Blumenthal column in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend. I thought I was reading my own story! Karen’s article was titled “Say Au Revoir to Your Credit.” It is kind of a warning to all those of us, American citizens, who live abroad for a while, whether for business or pleasure, and return home to find out that they have no credit record! How unfortunate if you happen to be looking to buy a home, or anything on credit for that matter!

Such a scenario is hardly exceptional. Nearly 7 million Americans reside in foreign countries, as the article suggests. That’s over 2% of the entire population. Not a negligible number. That number could actually go up if the trend of sending employees overseas continues. In 2012, 64% of multinational companies have increased their international assignments, according to Brookfield Global Relocation Services. That’s up from 43% in 2011.

All those relocated workers and the millions of Americans enjoying a retirement, or a prolonged vacation, or a sabbatical in a foreign land, are at risk. Unless they were/are smart enough to keep their credit record alive while out of the country.

Evidently I was not one of the smart ones in 2007. That year, my wife & I decided to fly back to the US after about 5 years doing business in Europe. Before packing the suitcases, I called a car dealer to order a car online, providing all of the requested info for a lease. When we showed up on US soil, I called again to let the dealer know that I was on my way to pick up the vehicle. The guy told me that he had the desired vehicle all right but that, if I really wanted to lease, he would charge me an arm in the leg since I had no credit!

My blood turned steamy-hot! How could I be treated like a new kid on the block when I had nothing but a stellar credit history? I went straight to the dealership CFO with rage in my brain, demanding the absolute best rate I deserved. The CFO, in a very calm civilized way, explained to me (and showed me) that my credit record was…Blank. All of the good stuff had been erased. My credit score, if I had any, was Zero. The CFO, at least, was able to verify that I existed (nice) and that, even though I had no credit record, he could tell that I did not have a bad one!!!

Don’t cry for me; I got the car and the lease, at a good rate. Thank you. I did, however, have to buy tons of stuff on credit for months and months to get the score back to par. Lesson learned.

What happened is what Karen Blumenthal is writing about in her paper. Credit is tied to an address. You are fine if the address is in the US. You are not if the address is elsewhere on the planet. Karen cites this quote from the VP of Education at Experian: “Even though we are in a global marketplace, the credit marketplace is still very segmented by country.” In other words, US lenders don’t know what you do with your money while out of the country when the address referenced on a charge card is not a domestic one. There is no sharing of information between banks, from here to there.

The problem arises very quickly after you change accounts to a foreign address, since the FICO score will die six months down the road once lenders stop updating their report. Forget about obtaining mortgage financing on your would-be next home if you let the clock tick too long!

There are tips to keep in mind in order to avoid being stuck in this predicament. The best one is a no-brainer: Keep your US credit intact, as Karen puts it. Her advice to expatriates is to have at least one credit card or loan tied to a US address. “Use the credit card at least a couple of times a year and pay the bill online to show activity on your credit record.”  Thank you. I, for one, will know next time!


Intero Insider: Why Home Buyers Need a Clue about the Mortgage Process

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As demand continues to pick up from home buyers, the mortgage lending market can expect gains from purchase loans. There’s just one snag: a third of home buyers are ill-prepared for the mortgage process, and can’t answer basic questions about down payments, interest rates and lender rules.

A survey released by Zillow last week found that home buyers answered basic questions about mortgages wrong 32.5% of the time.

Some of the misinformation out there includes:

  • 34% of first-time buyers surveyed aren’t aware that it’s possible to get a mortgage with less than 5% down.
  • Home buyers also don’t understand how to secure the best possible interest rates and loan terms. 26% incorrectly believe they are obligated to close their loan with the lender that pre-approved them. 24% incorrectly believe that they’ll get the best rates and fees through the bank they currently do business with. And 34% of buyers believe all lenders are required by law to charge the same fees for credit reports and appraisals.
  • Further misinformation and beliefs exist in refinancings, with 25% saying it’s not possible for underwater borrowers to refinance. In fact, 2.2 million underwater borrowers have refinanced under the federal Home Affordable Refinance Program, which was recently extended through 2015. And almost half (47%) of current homeowners believe they must wait at least one year between refinancings.

Why is this story significant?

A number of reasons. For one, as the market picks up speed, we need more savvy buyers among our ranks to keep it moving. Understanding the mortgage process enables a borrower to navigate it better and more quickly, which we’re seeing is really important in markets where inventory moves fast.

In hot markets that have tight supply, buyers who’ve gone through pre-approval and/or better prepared themselves for the loan process will be the more attractive offer for sellers. They’re more likely to qualify for financing and close faster than their unprepared counterparts.

In addition, as we saw with the financial market collapse, recession and housing downturn five years ago, the unsavvy borrower is not only a danger to himself, but to our economy as a whole.

So, how do you educate yourself if you’re in the market to buy? You can read up on the basics at the Mortgage Professor, a site with great information from a non-interested third party (i.e., it’s not your bank giving you advice). You can engage in discussions with your Intero Real Estate agent, who can recommend local sources.

This is an important piece of the housing recovery that until now hasn’t received much attention. How can we expect a healthy purchase market if buyers don’t know how to navigate their loans? Maybe borrower education will (or should) be the next big area of innovation in our market.


Luxury Insider: Home Grown, Locally Owned & Internationally Known!

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Hold your breath….There is one real estate company that currently has $44 Billion (with a “B”) worth of listing inventory exclusively in the high end! Who might that be? The answer is “Luxury Portfolio International,” the leading high end real estate marketing network in the world, and our loyal partner (secret weapon) to connect our local exclusive properties to all prospective qualified buyers, wherever they may reside on the globe.

As I said before, in a previous blog, real estate companies may be born equal but they sure don’t evolve at the same speed and to the same extent. Some grow. Some shrink. There is always a reason. In our case, there is no doubt that “Luxury Portfolio,” because of their international scope of coverage and the many tolls & services which complement ours, gave us the dimension & the batting average required today to successfully market luxury homes.

Luxury Portfolio, as big as it is, is an offspring of a giant network by the name of “Leading Real Estate Companies of the World.” LeadingRE, to use its acronym, assembles 500 of the leading independent companies in 35 countries, with 4,600 offices and 140,000 associates, representing an aggregate sales volume that exceeds $235 Billion annually.

Created back in 1997 by 50 of the largest real estate companies at the time, LeadingRE has come a long way, as a recent article in RISMedia reminded me. The concept that served as a winning business model was rather refreshing at a time when the big fishes were burning lots of time & beaucoup money to buy small/medium-size fishes to become bigger fishes… Here, the idea was to create a company of equals, an umbrella if you will, run by the leading independent firms for their own individual & collective benefits.

Having read the Three Musketeers about 20 times when I was a kid, I am sold on the concept of “One For All and All For One.” In business as in life in general, you cannot (and should not?) do everything yourself if you can count on trusted others to do it better and with you. That’s the power of teamwork. Pam O’Connor, the President & CEO of LeadingRE, has another mantra that she likes to cite: “Make the best brokerages better.” It is working.

Interestingly enough, the birth of the Luxury Portfolio, the estates division of the group led by Paul Boosma, was born from the Sotheby’s acquisition by Cendant. It was launched to fill the vacancy you might say. The baby quickly grew to become the high-end powerhouse that it is today. As matter of fact, if we look at the US market share of $Million + listings according to the Mintel International Website Survey of a year ago, Luxury Portfolio, with about 10,000 properties at the time, was outperforming SothebysRealty.com by better than 20%, ChristiesGreatEstates.com by better than 80% and ColdwellBankerPreviews.com by more than 100%!

Yesterday’s craving for becoming part of a national brand is not quite as big a deal today. Lots of brokers find it more rewarding to ”build their own brand rather than someone else’s,” as Paul Boosma was quoted saying.  Using Luxury Portfolio as a bridge to top independent brokers around the world and, by extension, to their high end buyers, accomplishes the goal of accessing the pool of wealthy would-be-buyers, thereby multiplying selling opportunities. Hence the title we chose for the blog: “Home Grown, Locally Owned, and Internationally Known!”

The extraordinary growth that we experienced with our Luxury Portfolio partner came as no surprise. The real estate business has changed enormously over the last 20 some years. Technology has caused the world to shrink. Local is now global. Today, many of the most exclusive cities of the most attractive states and countries are competing for the same buyers for the most pricey properties. Whether you sell real estate in New York, San Francisco or Miami, the chance that you will sell a trophy home to a foreign national or an out-of-state buyer far exceeds the chance to sell it to a “local.”

Even at the entry level to the high end, Realtors must now have the marketing means to effectively reach out to all or most of the potential buyers well beyond the regional boundaries….Or become completely irrelevant to the needs of home sellers and buyers in an industry forced to keep pace with technology and growing clients’ expectations.


Intero Insider: Defaults Down and Flipping Returns

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Here are two fun things to ponder this week:

Mortgage defaults are down – way down. First-time delinquent home loans fell to 0.84% of the 50.2 million mortgages in March, according to LPS.

It was monumental because it was the first month defaults fell below 1% since 2007, when the first defaults of the financial crisis reared their heads.

First-time delinquents are defined as loans that went from performing to at least 60 days delinquent when the report was created.

The days of problem loans aren’t fully behind us – there will be some amount of that in the market for a while. But the days of massive waves of these loans are safely tucked in the background, for now it seems.

Flip: Real estate’s four-letter word

Flipping made a media comeback this past week when RealtyTrac released a report highlighting the top 25 markets for flipping homes in 2012. The markets reflect those cities in which flipping produced the highest rate of return for flippers, i.e., gross profit.

Phoenix had the highest number of flips in 2012 with 10,589 property flips. Inland Empire, CA, Las Vegas, Miami, Denver and Detroit also topped the list by volume of flips.

The top five markets in terms of dollar amount profit in 2012 were San Jose ($103,241), San Diego ($85,714), San Francisco ($80,306), Las Vegas ($70,746), and Ventura County, CA ($70,426).

While flipping may conjure up bad memories of its TV glory days when everyone from waiters to hairdressers was a self-proclaimed real estate investment guru, it’s not a bad thing.

Flipping implies property improvements and increasing values – two important factors in pushing a healthy, widespread recovery.

Something tells me it’ll be less circus-like this time around. More seasoned investors and levelheaded borrowers. More lending restrictions. Less snap decisions and debt digging.

Lessons learned indeed. But it’s something to keep an eye on. If we start to see insane rampant flipping by real estate hobbyists again, we may need to step back and reboot.


Luxury Insider: From Paris, With Love!

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I am originally from Paris, so allow me to be somewhat partial to the City of Lights where I left –a century ago it feels like- so many wonderful memories and much of my shopping money! I always think of Paris when I write about luxury real estate because it is indeed THE reference in the global market, together with London & New York, and a barometer of what’s going on or what is likely to happen at the high end. After all, France is the most visited country in the world and Paris, according to most polls, is the top-of-list city where super wealthy people would love to own a pad. Many do.

Nobody can talk about the estates market in Paris better than Feau, the leading brokerage in the luxury market. It can be said that they “own” the high end, as they represent better than 70% of the listings over $2.5M in a highly competitive environment. Charles-Marie Jottras, a good friend and CEO of Feau, just sent me the study they put together on the state of affairs at the top of the price pyramid. It is quite an education, one that I would like to share with you.

The first thing that jumps at you when reading the report is the dramatic surge of new listings which has been hitting the Paris market every month for the last 12! .…Exactly the opposite of what most cities in the US have been experiencing over the same period. The surge is not just in the number of properties for sale but in the overall value of the available top heavy stock, as the top end is driving this phenomenon. There was $7 Billion worth of active inventory in the Quarter that just ended…

You may wonder why? Well, one of the crowd-pleasing initiatives that the government has been promoting is to raise taxes on the wealthy. Nice concept to gain popularity here, there & everywhere these days, but the French pushed it to the extreme level, the “guillotine level”, by announcing a…75% tax rate! Granted foreigners are not affected by the new measures, except for capital gains, but the French citizens who own pricey real estate can’t pack their bag fast enough to leave this “fiscal inferno”, hence the explosion of new listings.

Case in point, looking at the entire listings inventory: just in the second quarter of last year, 25% of sellers of $2.5M+ homes were on their way out of “Douce France”. Above $9M, the exodus reaches 44%, including 28% absentee owners for whom the decision is not quite as painful.

Paris is no exception to the rule of supply & demand. When a big wave of listings hits, prices usually adjust downwards. The volume of sales, in Q1, was 20% lighter than that of 2012. No surprise. The good news is that buyers can now pick & choose, and they can even negotiate, which is a pretty new thing in Paris. Some smart buyers are jumping on the opportunity, while many are sitting tight hoping for lower prices yet. Good luck!

So, who is buying these days in the French capital?

Buyers from the Gulf come first. They cannot have enough of Paris. They are pretty busy in London as well. The Russians too are avid of Paris real estate. Price is no object. Only the best. People from the Mediterranean Basin come next, followed by….Us, genuine American buyers with good money and a love for Paris. Could not be better timing to show your love!


Start your engines to raise money for the kids!

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The annual Hot Wheels for Kids takes place this Saturday at Intero’s Saratoga Office.  The Mercury News got in the game with this great article in the Saratoga News.

http://www.mercurynews.com/saratoga/ci_23134772/some-hot-wheels-will-raise-money-kids


Intero Insider: Pending Sales Show Continued Slow Growth Ahead

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Constrained housing inventory continues to be a concern and the speed bump that’s slowing down what otherwise may have been an overwhelmingly busy spring home buying season in many markets.

Pending home sales – a closely watched housing indicator – increased in March and remained above levels from last year. But it showed only modest movement, which indicates that we’re in for another couple months of slower-than-we’d-hoped-for sales, according to the latest index released this week from the National Association of Realtors.

NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.5% to 105.7 in March from 104.1 in February. It was 7% higher than March 2012 when it was 98.8. The data tracks contract signings, not closings, which makes it a good prognosticator of things to come.

Not surprisingly, the numbers show that a slower sales and contract pace is not due to a lack in demand, but rather a lack of supply – a problem we’ve talked about plenty here.

In related news, the home building industry has been hustling and bustling this year, enjoying rising revenues and even some IPOs.

However, CNBC points out that despite rising demand, some builders are slowing down production. That sounds counter-intuitive to what’s happening out there today.

Why not increase production at a time when the appetite for homes is strong and growing? It’s simple: building costs are also rising. Some builders will need to control their production to be sure that the rising costs of construction don’t sideline their growth and derail them.

How might this development potentially snag the market for resale homes? It just means that supply may continue to be tight until we reach our tipping point where more owners who are currently underwater either come above water or reach a point where they could afford to sell.

It could also mean values continue upward at a more rapid pace than we originally predicted. I don’t think builders are going to stop building, but this rise in costs is something they’ll each face as they look to build more.

I tend to think of these things not as snags but as blessings in disguise. If there’s one thing we learned from the last housing boom and the downturn that followed, it’s that the faster you climb the harder you fall.

Maybe a little reality check to stop and catch our breath is a good thing in the overall picture.

Happy house hunting!